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Annuities

In: Business and Management

Submitted By connect2puneet
Words 6357
Pages 26
Indian G-Sec Market: How the Term Structure Reacts to Monetary Polic

Introduction Behavior of term structure is a major source of interest rate risk and influences the decision making process of the participants in money market and government securities (G-Sec) market regarding holding and trading. Monetary policy is a major determining factor of term structure. The first quarter of the current financial year found hikes in monetary policy rates in India to be followed by upward shifts in the domestic term structure, which adversely affected the G-Sec portfolios of the market participants. This paper wants to find out how term structure responds to monetary policy actions in India.

Literature Review There are a number of studies in USA on how term structure responds to the expectations about the central bank’s monetary policy actions. Cook et al (1989) found that changes in the federal funds target rate (FFTR) in the 1970s caused large movements in short term interest rates, moderate movements in medium term rates, and small movements in long term rates. Kuttner (2001) estimated that the bond rate’s response to expected changes in monetary policy is negligible, while their response to unexpected changes is significant. Faust et al (2002), as reported by Goukasian et al (2006), using prices from federal funds futures contracts derived the unexpected component of Federal Reserve policy decisions and assessed their impact on the future trajectory of interest rates.

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Goukasian et al (2006) measured the expected and unexpected components of the changes in the FFTR and the sensitivity of the term structure of zero rates to those changes. They used two alternative models of term structure – the NelsonSiegel model and the extended Vasicek model. They calibrated both models along with data on changes in the FFTR and studied the impact of monetary policy on the…...

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