Jubilant Food Works

In: Business and Management

Submitted By n2drall
Words 7867
Pages 32
European Equity Research

UK – Food & Drugs Retailers
Madrid, October 6, 2010

TESCO
Better International Should Help Re-rating
RECOMMENDATION UPGRADED TO BUY FROM HOLD TARGET PRICE RAISED TO GBP490 FROM GBP450

BUY
CURRENT PRICE: GBP430 TARGET PRICE: GBP490

Jaime Vázquez
(+34) 91 289 5436 javazquez@gruposantander.com

Borja Olcese
(34) 91 289 1853 fdolcese@gruposantander.com

We upgrade Tesco from Hold to Buy and raise our Dec-11 TP from GBp450 to GBp490. The two key highlights from the 1H11 results are the better than expected international LFLs in 2Q and the increased confidence in the US. Management provided more detail than usual at the presentation, which we believe denotes confidence. International LFL: 4.1% in 2Q after 0% in 1Q. We believe LFL is the key driver of CROI and not scale via openings. With better LFLs, the ‘maturing effect’ looks more credible to us. In the four most mature countries, the CROI of the mature assets (>4 years) is 220bp higher than the CROI of all assets. US to break even in 2012E/13E: the improvement in LFLs and other underlying metrics show that the key components of a profitable model are coming together. The worsening of overall losses in 1H from US$132mn to US$143mn is explained by the adverse leverage from new space and the acquisition of two supplier factories (US$10-15mn loss). This is a highly operationally geared business and improving LFLs is therefore key. UK: we agree with management that LFLs (Tesco’s and the industry’s) will accelerate in 2H10 driven by rising food inflation and declining petrol inflation.

Relative Performance (12 Months)
160

140

STOXX Retail

120

100

Tesco
80

60 Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-10

Source: FactSet.

Company Data, October 4, 2010 (Fiscal Year to Feb 28)
Reuters/Bloomberg code ADR code / ratio Market cap (GBP mn) Outst shares (mn) Website…...

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