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Susan Griffin

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Økonomene i meglerhuset SEB tror boligprisnedgangen i Norge vil bli moderat i år - og at prisnedgangen stopper helt opp og flater ut i 2015.

- Et viktig utgangspunkt for analysen vår av Norge er, og har vært, at vi ser ingen boble i det norske boligmarkedet, skriver sjefstrateg Erica Blomgren i en oppdatering fra SEB tirsdag.

- Psykologisk opphav
Ifølge meglerhusets ferske prognoser vil boligprisene i gjennomsnitt falle med 3-4 prosent i år sammenlignet med fjoråret.

Blomgren mener den siste perioden med prisoppgang i det norske boligmarkedet, med en gjennomsnittlig prisvekst på åtte prosent per år i årene fra 2010 til 2012, kan forklares med sterk inntektsvekst i husholdningene, høyere standard på grunn av oppussing og den grunnleggende tilbuds- og etterspørselssituasjonen.

- Korreksjonen som foregår nå har i stor grad et psykologisk opphav. En annen faktor som bidrar til nedgangen er at bankene har strammet inn på kravene til forhåndssalg, med tanke på de som selger før de kjøper, slår Blomgren fast i rapporten.

- Vi tror fortsatt at den videre nedgangen i prisene vil bli kontrollert; med tanke på salgsvolumer og omsetningshastighet skjer det nå en normalisering. Tilbud og etterspørsel i markedet, så vel som høye inntekter og høy sparing i husholdningssektoren, peker i retning av en mild prisjustering, skriver Blomgren i oppdateringen.

Venter stabilisering
Hun peker på at antall nye byggetillatelser ifjor falt mer enn de hadde ventet, noe hun på sikt mener vil føre til en bedre balanse i markedet, siden etterspørselen snart vil overgå tilbudet igjen.

- I løpet av 2015 forventer vi at nedgangen i boligbyggingen, som allerede har startet, vil stabilisere prisene og boligmarkedet som helhet. En annen betryggende faktor er at bankene i stor grad allerede er i stand til å møte nye kapitalkrav, skriver SEB-økonomen i rapporten.


Derfor skal boligprisene falle videre

Svak utvikling i boligprisene

- Flere grunner til at norske boligpriser er blitt så høye

Les også på

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